A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
